China Attacking Taiwan is feasible? Lost Taiwan will completely change the World Strategy

11 min readJul 20, 2022

China attack Taiwan is really feasible? or impossible? It is all depends on Russia-Ukraine war result. Take care Taiwanese.

After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine for five months, Russia failed. Many people compared Ukraine to Taiwan if Russia invades Ukraine Successful. The invasion of Ukraine likely encouraged Xi Jinping to attack Taiwan.

The Diplomat magazine writes an article about what exactly did the Ukraine war teach Xi Jinping? What will he think? How to learn this lesson? Everyone learns a different lesson, so here’s the big factor in this article. Some people say Xi Jinping is crazy, so don’t think about it. He can do whatever he likes.

Anyway, he has his own powerful calculation to measure is it beneficial or disadvantageous to play Taiwan. Let’s see what “The Diplomat” has to say. Why does Xi Jinping feel that he can grasp his “Ukraine” is Taiwan.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, like many others, is surprised that Russia has been fighting for so long and still can’t beat Ukraine. At the beginning, based on US intelligence that Ukraine would fall within three or four days.

U.S. once wanted Zelensky to move to west Ukraine. They know that the Ukrainians resisted valiantly, and the United States and Europe. Even the Germans did a lot of economic and financial sanctions on Russia and they supply Ukraine with a lot of arms.

Otherwise, of course Ukraine will not be able to fight, but some analysts think so Putin hits Ukraine so hard.

It may make Xi Jinping feel that wow, it is very difficult to fight Taiwan, and we have to cross the sea again.

It’s not feasible, some analysts think so, but four months have passed it’s been five months, Xi Jinping now looks at Ukraine and Russia, he will think if I hit Taiwan. The United States and the West will not sanction me so much that I can seriously consider this matter.

He thinks he has a chance from Beijing’s point of view. The most important thing to consider about fighting Taiwan is whether it is more pros or cons in reality. If he wins Taiwan, what benefits will he gain? Oh so he’ll get strategic land but why?

Taiwan is the most critical point of the first island chain
If this point is worn, the defense line of the first island chain will collapse.

So it’s a strategically important position for China able to develop from there and go south to control the Philippines, Malaysia. Even all the way to its new friend the Solomon Islands and then isolated Australia, making Australia an island. Going north or east to China would make it very difficult for Japan and South Korea. Therefore, it will actually replace the position of the US military in the Western Pacific.

As long as Taiwan breaks, the whole chain will be disintegrated and go south to Australia
As far west as the Philippines and Malaysia, all under Chinese control
Threatening Japan and South Korea from the east, let’s see.

The key to the first island chain from Japan, this is the Ryukyu Islands, and the Ryukyu Islands go to Taiwan, from Taiwan to the Philippines. You can imagine when Taiwan loses, Ryukyu has only a small population it’s hard to keep, isn’t it? The Philippine armament is very backward, The entire South China Sea will fall into the hands of Beijing.

Beijing can break through and directly threaten the second island chain Guam. This line of defense collapsed strategically and now the first island chain blocks it. The second island chain supports Taiwan, the third island chain is the rear. Lock it here so it can’t get out of the Indian Ocean. This is England and Africa and more importantly, it discredits America if the United States swears it can’t protect the freedom and safety of 24 million Taiwanese.

The United States has spent so long with its military and financial and economic power even nuclear weapons cannot protect Taiwan, so does anyone in this region believe that the United States can protect them?

They will compromise with the CCP. Hey, call the CCP the big brother.
Except for two countries, one is Japan, Japan is not convinced, but Japan will be very dangerous and Australia so.

Success in Taiwan is to bring down the balance in the Western Pacific and China is really a great national rejuvenation. China has become a hegemony in the Western Pacific. The United States will retreat to Hawaii if other places dare not give American bases the Pacific Ocean, east of Hawaii. Xi Jinping said at that time, the Pacific Ocean is so big enough for our two countries. The Pacific Ocean east of Hawaii is American west of Hawaii is China’s territory so for Beijing it’s very attractive and it’s really a great renaissance.

In terms of national conditions, how can the West sanction China by attacking Taiwan? If you use Ukraine as an example, although a lot of people died, losing a lot of equipment, Putin is likely to end up taking more Ukrainian land. At the end of the war, he may include the Donbass and the land bridge to the south as Russian territory. Any attempt to overthrow him will fail, Putin still sits in his place and after this fight he has control of eastern and southern Ukraine likely to control more places. When the last ceasefire occurs, his reputation at home will increase. Ukraine’s national strength will be greatly weakened and it will not be able to protect Ukraine.

Will Ukraine become a puppet state of Russia again? Okay, no Swift allowed, don’t trade in dollars, we thought we’d scare Putin or let Putin not be able to fight this battle for long but it didn’t happen. Russia ruble seems good, the pre-war position fall and bounce back shortly.

Huh? The ruble is higher than it was before the war, that’s what he often talks about he’s still the old god. You can see EU and US how those companies are in favor of leaving Russia right now, you’d be quite surprised. He said it made Russia difficult but there’s a huge gap, why? Because you can’t buy oil and gas from it, you can’t cut off its oil and gas right away.

Russia earns $800 million a day by just selling gas and oil because prices have gone up. Some are sold to Europe, many are sold to India and China. Russia’s oligarchs seem to be supporting Putin, they’re all nationalists while making them poor, you don’t see any sign of Putin’s regime faltering. It was the war in Ukraine that made Putin charge more for oil and control certain materials. For example, neon gas, the output of neon gas used for semiconductors. Also he found that Russia’s manipulation of the Black Sea left the world’s food supply at the mercy of Putin.

Although Russia hasn’t won yet, it doesn’t look like it’s going to lose. Yeah? So think about Beijing. “Huh? If Russia could do this
I’m better off. I’m much better than Russia. My economic power is much bigger than Russia. Russia can stand it too, how can I not?”.

Well in Ukraine because the Russian army is much bigger, the population is much larger, the armament is much larger, and as a result, Ukraine is slowly overwhelmed. If this is the case, the People’s Liberation Army is better than the Taiwan Army the distance is farther, the scale and the weapon are farther apart How much can the US support Ukraine but The quantity and variety are limited. It will not give Ukraine certain weapons although those weapons are advantageous. For example, will not give Ukraine a 300-kilometer range of Haimas cannons are also cannonballs that can’t give Excalibur. Why? Because these weapons could be used to attack across the Russian border further anger Moscow and Taiwan itself is no longer armed enough to defend itself.

Will these logics also appear at that time? Stop provoking Beijing therefore restricting supply to Taiwan so as not to anger Beijing. You have to know that there is no joint military exercise between the United States and Taiwan. Taiwan is also not included in the Pacific Rim exercise. Okay, so would you doubt it? The United States will fully support Taiwan? What will Xi Jinping think? All right even if the United States and other countries decide that when Taiwan is attacked, the moment full support, it may be too late because unlike Ukraine geo, Ukraine is next to Poland and Romania a lot of arms can be transported from land Taiwan is an island. Transporting ammunition is likely to be attacked, it’s not that easy to get things to the island if Beijing can block Taiwan.

Taiwan may soon run out of its rockets, arms and other hardware. It is very difficult to supply from the United States. It is very difficult to ship to Taiwan.
Okay, the Russian-Ukrainian war is putting a huge strain on the global economy.

Shakes everyone but many countries are not on the side of the West. There are a whole bunch of countries, some even support Russia. Sri Lanka is now asking for help from Russia. The Western bloc is very powerful. This means that economically the Western bloc together account for more than 60% of the world economy, but
in terms of the number of countries, it is no more than others. Those countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America if this problem occurs in Taiwan, the hit to the economy is much worse than the hit Ukraine and the world may force the United States and Western countries to make compromises.

Because the damage to the economy is too great. What does Russia rely on to make the United States dare not send troops or provide advanced weapons? Threats to use nuclear bombs appear to frighten US and EU. Will this be the case when it comes to Taiwan? China has always said Taiwan is its core interest is its bottom line if China says: “Whoever helps Taiwan, I will use nuclear weapons”. Do the United States and Europe dare to fight?

Before Russia invaded Ukraine take some precautionary measures for fear of being sanctioned. It’s been successful in a few ways, for example, the dollar has been reduced, more gold is stored, more RMB is also stored, stockpiling more supplies, ready to be sanctioned, and Beijing spent decades preparing
what if i get sanctioned in 1999 the book was written and proposed that Beijing prepare what to do if you are sanctioned by the U.S. Stock up on inventory and get ready, don’t hold too many dollars, sell dollar bonds, possibly holding more Russian rubles or Indian rupees. Save some more gold and Bitcoin.

Well, something the west desperately needs. Now they exempt it from sanctions and from China needs something more including drugs, also the basic vitamins and antibiotics in the world, 90% of the active substances in it come from the mainland China. Without these drugs would not be enough, but the US and Europe are now starting to produce it themselves. Because after the new coronavirus, they found that these things cannot be imported from abroad. So will that also exempt China from many things if Taiwan is beaten and continue to do business with China?

In fact, the west cannot fully sanction the mainland because many supply chains depend on the mainland, if comprehensive sanctions are imposed will cause great harm to the western economy and something special actually refers to rare earths, which are very important to the economy of the west. Especially arms, arms dealers are also very important China has never been severely sanctioned. In other words, after the Korean War, China has never tried to be severely sanctioned like Russia.

China and Russia are now united in Northeast Asia Air Force and Navy Rotate around Japan to react, it’s firmly on Russia’s side on the contrary, they dared to provoke, which made everyone doubt the determination of the West. If China really makes a move towards Taiwan there’s a very strong lobbyist in Washington. Calling on the U.S. not to confront China This is the US-China Business Council. US-China Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street’s reaction because the United States recently proposed to review all investments that threaten the national security of the United States. Wall Street and the US-China Chamber of Commerce vehemently oppose. You can imagine if Taiwan was really invaded, United States wants to completely sanction China, how will these people object well, what’s the benefit of fighting Taiwan? Taiwan accounts for 92% of the world’s advanced chips if the factory is still there, let the CCP win. Think about how developed China is, it can sell chips to Russia at a low price then it rations your enemies, trick the enemy, hello, this will collapse the western economy.

Does the West have a choice? Yes! They have a choice to set some big project sanctions like taking China to the UN Security Council or kicking it out of the WTO but now you can’t do this against Russia either China thinks you can deal with me? You can’t because your UN doesn’t have enough votes.

Can China handle this kind of problem?

Xi Jinping thinks it can, this is important, not whether it can really but Xi Jinping believes that it can be bad. He said that it seems that Xi Jinping believes that the Chinese can endure a lot of punishment. It’s okay to suffer, it’s called the Pain Theory if they believe he’s right. He spent decades explaining that Taiwan is China’s territory. The Chinese are on the side of justice, the reunification of Taiwan is inevitable, and the West is bullying us. The Chinese are therefore willing to make sacrifices and now Taiwan is rolling the dice. Beijing is not the first dictatorship to do this kind of thing, it takes a risk that it can do it.

Let think about 1939 how Hitler invaded Poland, and even Russia he dares to do the longer the Ukraine war drags on, the more Beijing can learn. It is likely that the Russian advance will be deadlocked in the fall and winter then the EU lost Russian gas. Temperatures are dropping, so Paris and Berlin. It’s France and Germany putting pressure on Ukraine to cede land to Russia. Germany appears to have been shaken to lift humanitarian concerns could European countries not supply arms if Ukraine refuses. Without aid to Ukraine, why would Ukraine not be able to sustain it?

Xi Jinping has given clear signals on what China will do in the future is to get Taiwan and drive America out of the Pacific.

Conclusion, if Putin wins, Xi Jinping must feel he can do it. If Putin can do it, he thinks he can. What can America do? Must defeat Putin and immediately provide weapons to Taiwan. Get Taiwan ready to deal with it, that’s what this article is about. I am inclined to believe that Xi Jinping is re-elected this time. He explains why he’s running for re-election, and the most important thing is that he’s half done with some things. He wants to continue to do it, that is, to solve the Taiwan issue, but he is a student of Mao Zedong. He is convinced not to fight uncertain battles after the Ukraine campaign. He sees through the US, Europe, we build 1,000 more nuclear bombs, then threaten the US It doesn’t dare to fight with us and as long as it hesitates. There is a more easy way to take Taiwan, use short-term to paralyze Taiwan and find Taiwanese traitors in Taiwan, form an interim government, so we help the interim government. If we split Taiwan, we can win.

How long does it take to prepare? 7 or 8 years is the rumors that is now being released he will take Taiwan before he steps down.

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China Attacking Taiwan is feasible? Lost Taiwan will completely change the World Strategy

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